[Golden Week Review] Non-farm diving help gold prices soared to six-week high gold for four weeks

Global Forex on June 3rd - Gold prices rose to a six-week high on Friday, after the US employment data was disappointing, weighed on the dollar, and the US expectation of a more positive interest rate hike this year. However, the market has no major impact on the June rate hike expectations.

International spot gold closed up $12.20 in the week of June 2, or 0.96%, to close at $1,278.90 per ounce, up to $1,279.10 per ounce, and the lowest to $1,285.75 per ounce.

US employment growth slowed in May, and employment growth data for the previous two months was also revised, suggesting that the job market is losing momentum, although the unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.3%. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs in the United States increased by 138,000 in May, with manufacturing, government and retail jobs falling, with an estimated increase of 185,000.

The US economic recovery is slowing down, cutting the possibility of raising interest rates. Joshua Graves, market strategist at RJO Futures, said that “non-agricultural employment data has surprised everyone. It seems that the gold market will continue to rise.”

Expectations of strong employment data and US manufacturing data are good, pulling gold down to a one-week low on Friday. In other markets, US stocks hit record highs for the second consecutive day, and the dollar fell to a seven-month low, making dollar-denominated gold less expensive.

"TongRumen" and the British election two major risk incidents

After a week of silence, Trump’s “Left Door” and “TongRumen” scandals seem to be expected to regain the headlines of the world’s authoritative media next week. According to foreign media reports, the former US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) director James Comey has confirmed that he will go to the Senate Intelligence Committee to testify on the 8th. His publicly exposed fabrics will be the same in the past few months. President Trump's interaction provides clues.

The well-known gold information website Kitco wrote on Thursday that investors are waiting for Komi's testimony, which is expected to be a risk factor affecting the dollar's movement. The renewed political turmoil may have a positive impact on gold prices next week, but due to the Federal Reserve's June. The monetary policy meeting is approaching, and the price increase of gold should be limited.

In addition, as the UK will hold a general election on June 8, the polls show that Teresa's Conservative Party's leading edge has narrowed, which increases the uncertainty of the election results. If there is any accident in the general election, the market risk sentiment will be suppressed, and the golden light will shine.

According to the latest poll by You Gov on June 2, the British Conservative Party only leads by 4 percentage points, which is far from the far ahead of the polls.

According to a recent survey released by Bloomberg on Friday (June 2), the number of longs has gained the upper hand this week, with traders and analysts watching the next week's gold price trend for the second week in a row. Of the 14 gold traders and analysts surveyed, 11 were bullish (79%), 2 were bearish (14%), and 1 was flat (7%).

What needs to be guarded is that spot gold has also reached a technical bottleneck. From the monthly level, the current international gold price is once again measuring a key downtrend line in the past six years. The particularity of this trend line is that its source comes from the record high of 1920 US dollars / ounce in October 2011. In the past six years, this trend line has witnessed the fate of gold! Be wary of the risk of a callback after the previous surge.

Edit: Mai Wei

(Editor: HN666)