Can consumer stocks continue to be strong?

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Can consumer stocks continue to be strong?

Our reporter Zhang Xueqing

The actual valuation of consumer stocks has been comparable to historical peak levels.

This recent data exceeded market expectations. From January to February, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,015.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, which was 23 percentage points higher than that of 2016.

Good stock market

“The macro environment is good for the stock market.” CITIC Securities believes that “mainly in three aspects, first, the profitability of listed companies in 2017 is expected to improve significantly; second, the risk-free rate of return will not significantly increase; third, the Chinese economy bid farewell to 'deflation', The recovery of endogenous growth kinetic energy will be ushered in. The changes in these macroeconomic environment will benefit the stock market. For the bond market, with the PPI peaking in the second quarter, the market's fear of 'stagflation' will gradually disappear; the second quarter economic growth rate It will also fall back. It is too early to judge the Chinese economy's 'V'-type rebound in the short term; the monetary policy has not entered the 'increasing interest rate cycle', and the fund interest rate level will not increase significantly and continue to rise. Therefore, we believe that the bond market yield is not sustainable. Upside pressure, there are investment opportunities in the short-term bond market."

Lu Fuchao, the equity fund manager of Haifutong, believes that the strength and resilience of this round of economic recovery is better than before, because it is not only the cycle of replenishing inventory, but also the upward production cycle. Taking mechanical equipment companies as an example, their orders have maintained good growth from the second half of last year to the first half of this year. This phenomenon has rarely been seen in the past five years. This also shows that this economic recovery is not only a short cycle of inventory, but also a long cycle of production capacity, which will certainly promote the economy. Overall, the market was neutral in the second quarter. There are currently no particularly large risk points, and more are structural opportunities. Investors can look for booming industries and core competitive companies to make allocations at reasonable valuation levels.

Haitong Securities said that it continues to be optimistic. Since March, the disturbance factor has continued, but the trend of the A-share market has continued to be strong. The core logic is that the fundamental improvement trend remains. Future investors can pay attention to the policy dynamics after the release of economic data in the first quarter of April. If the data in the first quarter continues to improve, it will provide better conditions for de-leverage.

In terms of configuration, it is recommended to focus on the main line of “consumption upgrade (high-end brand consumer goods) + theme cycle (state-owned enterprise reform, 'Belt and Road”, high dividends) + value growth (performance and valuation matching).

Consumer stocks are expensive

From the perspective of the recent market, the index is basically in a sideways volatility, so there is also a more obvious structural differentiation. In the past period of time, a small number of industries have achieved relatively obvious excess returns, such as liquor, home appliances, electronics and so on. The common traits embodied in these industries are that the performance has a certain growth, and after years of reshuffle, the leading advantages of the company are obvious and the certainty is strong. On the whole, it will maintain a high probability of maintaining a structural trend in a certain period of time.

However, for the continuous innovation of high-end consumer stocks, the market has been controversial, there are two main problems: First, consumer stocks are not expensive? Second, should the leading company have a valuation premium?

GF Securities believes that from the perspective of absolute valuation, the valuation of consumer stocks is still far below the peak level of 2009~2011, and it seems that it is not expensive. The last collective performance of domestic consumer stocks was in 2009~2011, when the PB center of liquor stocks was about 10 times, the PB center of chemical stocks was about 5 times, and the PB center of white goods was about 4.5 times. At present, the PB levels of liquor stocks, chemical stocks and white electricity stocks are 5.4 times, 3.9 times and 3.9 times respectively, which seems to be significantly lower than the peak period of 2009~2011. However, considering that the ROE level of consumer stocks generally decreases compared with 2009~2011, and the decline of PB and the decline of ROE are completely matched, it can be said that the actual valuation level of consumer stocks has reached the historical peak level. Not cheap at all.

In addition, will the leading company enjoy a valuation premium that exceeds the industry average?

From overseas experience, the valuation of leading companies in the conventional environment is lower than the industry average. There is a popular saying that the leading companies in the industry can gain more than the average growth of the industry under the “Matthew effect” because of their stronger pricing power and greater market share. They should also enjoy the valuation beyond the industry average. Premium. However, GF Securities believes that the study found that the PE of leading companies in various US stock markets is actually lower than the median level of the industry. The reason is: First, the market value of leading companies is often large, and it is difficult to support high valuations because of excessive consumption of funds. Secondly, due to the high market share of leading companies, it is necessary to obtain more than the industry average on this basis. The growth is actually very difficult, so it is difficult to get a growth premium.

On the whole, if the stock price of the consumer leader continues to rise, it can no longer be explained by reasonable logic, but a process of valuation bubble.

From the experience of overseas markets, the reason for the “value bubble” of consumption leaders is that when the future macro environment is in great uncertainty, the leading consumer stocks have obtained a “stability premium”; only when the macro environment is uncertain After the disappearance of sex, this valuation bubble will be punctured, but it seems that it has not yet reached the time when the bubble burst. Events that may reduce macro-environmental uncertainty in the future include: confirmation or falsification of economic recovery, effectiveness test of real estate regulation, and policy adjustment of the “Nineteenth National Congress”.

Comprehensive dividend year

In addition to consumer stocks, high dividend stocks are the highlight of this year's market. This year, the blue-chip stocks have a high score, and there is a generous dividend of more than 590 million Shenhua that shocked the market. Later, Sinopec’s new high dividends will reach 30.1 billion yuan. Under the influence of these two central enterprises and policies, 2017 is expected to open a comprehensive dividend year for big blue chips.

At the regular meeting of the CSRC held on March 24, spokesman Deng Wei said that China Shenhua has maintained a high level of cash dividends for many years. The accumulated dividends in the past three years exceeded 80 billion yuan, showing a responsible state-owned The good style of holding a listed company has established a good image of blue chip stocks. The CSRC will continue to improve the system and guide listed companies to combine their own development stages and capital status, and return investors through cash dividends to strengthen the long-term investment philosophy of the market. On the same day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange also said on the official Weibo that China Shenhua is a model for Shanghai stock market to reward investors with solid performance and sustained and stable dividends.

Although China does not force listed companies to pay dividends, management has always advocated that listed companies return investors. China’s Shenhua’s local tyrants pay dividends, and the management’s affirmation also illustrates this point.

In addition, the Securities and Futures Commission has also targeted the "iron cock" in listed companies. The CSRC said that the next step will continue to guide listed companies to return investors through cash dividends, strengthen supervision of listed companies that have the ability and long-term non-dividends, and list companies that do not pay dividends, pay less dividends, and reduce their holdings through “high delivery”. Strict investigation and strict handling.

Immediately afterwards, Sinopec also issued the highest dividend since listing, and the blue chip Vanke also announced a plan for 7.9 yuan for every 10 shares.

On the evening of March 27th, the online game company Gigabit disclosed the 2016 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 1.305 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 335%; net profit reached 585 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 234%. At the same time, the company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 41 yuan (including tax) to every 10 shares of all shareholders. The company said that its performance has increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to the good performance of the new online game "Qingdao Mobile Games".

It can be seen that under the influence of these blue-chip stocks and the supervisory level, the A-share market is expected to open.

High dividend hotspots continue

Liu Jun, director of the investment division of Huatai Bairui Index, predicts that the effectiveness of the bonus factor will continue for a long period of time in the future.

Liu Jun believes that, first of all, China's macro economy is in the period of growth and shifting. The trend of “L-shaped” will be a long-term trend, and “stable” is the main tone of the future economy. The probability of cyclical large fluctuations in China's economy is significantly reduced. The A-share market is also highly likely to be highly correlated with the trend of the economy. The sharp rise and fall of the index lacks the macroeconomic foundation. Therefore, in the context of “de-leverage”, the investment has A company that stabilizes cash flow is equivalent to providing a safety mat.

Secondly, the investor structure of the A-share market is also undergoing a quiet change. From the development of public funds, to the rapid rise of private equity institutions, to insurance, annuities, etc., the investment theme of the A-share market has also changed. "Golden Flower" blue chip stock market, to "small and medium-sized" speculation and value stocks in the past year, with the "low risk preference" institutional investors entering the market, "low valuation, high dividends" value stocks will welcome Great investment demand for long-term funds.

Third, the policy is stricter, the original source is clear, and the regulatory policy is also guiding the return of value investment. In the recent period, the regulatory authorities frequently recruited and investigated a series of measures such as false restructuring and illegal fund speculation, IPO normalization, and refinancing rules adjustment, aiming at curbing the illegal chaos in the capital market. Listed companies will also respond to regulatory trends to return to the market, and high dividend market hotspots will continue.

In this wave of return to value investment, Huatai Bairui SSE Dividend ETF (510880), represented by “low valuation and high dividends”, has continued to win the favor of funds.

The data shows that since last year, the scale of the Huatai Bairui SSE Dividend ETF has continued to grow, from less than 600 million yuan in the first quarter of 2016 to more than 1.1 billion yuan now, and the cumulative growth has nearly doubled. During the period, the fund also carried out a large proportion of dividends, each fund dividend of 0.091 yuan, equivalent to a static dividend yield of nearly 4.27%.

At the same time, the secondary market activity of Huatai Bairui SSE Dividend ETF has gradually increased, and the participation in funds has increased significantly. Statistics show that the current market turnover of the SSE Dividend ETF is close to 30 million yuan, ranking among the top ten active stock ETFs in the A-share market. It is also the only non-wide-base A-share ETF that enters the top ten.

Medium-term layout

Judging from the 2016 annual report, 19 listed companies have published their annual reports earlier, and have already completed the implementation of dividends; 76 companies' dividend plans are in the shareholders' proposal stage, and 115 companies are in the shareholders' meeting. The dividend plans of 768 companies are at the board stage.

From the perspective of the total amount of dividends, the current major dividends are dominated by blue chips, and the dividends of five companies exceed 10 billion yuan. In addition to China Shenhua and Sinopec, China Merchants Bank has a dividend before tax of 0.74 yuan per share, and the total amount of dividends for the 2016 reporting period will reach 18.66 billion yuan; CITIC Bank and Ping An are also closely followed, with a dividend of 0.215 yuan per share. And 0.55 yuan, the total amount of dividends reached 10.5 billion yuan and 10.1 billion yuan.

According to the dividend yield, only the 2016 annual report shows that among the companies that have announced cash dividends, 19 companies have a dividend yield of more than 3%, and China Shenhua ranks first with 15.4%; followed by Harbin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Changbao's dividend yield was also ranked higher, reaching 6.43% and 6.02% respectively.

It is worth noting that Gigabit's dividend plan did not trigger the positive pursuit of funds, and Gigabit's share price continued to fall. Obviously, the fear of high sentiment spread. However, investors can still pay attention to the stagflation and high-scoring talents with high potential, as the medium-term layout.

CICC's high-scoring stocks found that the background of state-owned enterprises, the lower asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio compared with the industry, the slowdown of the industry's main business growth or the pressure on further capital expenditures, the relatively abundant cash in hand, and stability The dividend history is the main feature of these stocks.

Part of the high dividend red company list

Code name program progress dividend per share (before tax)

603444.SH Gigabit Board of Directors Plan 4.10

601088.SH China Shenhua Board of Directors Plan 2.51

600697.SH Eurasian Group failed to pass 1.90 1.8000

603858.SH step pharmaceutical board of directors plan 1.61

000963.SZ Huadong Pharmaceutical Board of Directors Plan 1.35 1.0000

000895.SZ Shuanghui Development Board Plan 1.20

603806.SH Forster Board of Directors 1.00

002315.SZ Focus Technology Board of Directors 1.00 1.0000

600066.SH Yutong Bus Board of Directors 1.00

002478.SZ Changbao Shareholders' Meeting passed 1.00 1.0000

000423.SZ Dong'e Ejiao Board of Directors Plan 0.90

000661.SZ Changchun High-tech Board of Directors Plan 0.80

002713.SZ Dong Yi Risheng Board of Directors Plan 0.80

000002.SZ Vanke A Board of Directors Plan 0.79

600660.SH Fuyao Glass Board Preparation Plan 0.75

000418.SZ Little Swan A Board of Directors Plan 0.75

600036.SH China Merchants Bank Board of Directors Resolution 0.74

600566.SH Jichuan Pharmaceutical Board of Directors Plan 0.73

603368.SH Liuzhou Medicine Board of Directors Plan 0.70 0.3000

603816.SH Gujia home board plan 0.70

002294.SZ Xinlitai Board of Directors Plan 0.70

002572.SZ Sofia Board of Directors Resolution 0.70 1.0000

603288.SH Haitian Weiye Board of Directors Plan 0.68

603658.SH Antu Bio-Shareholders Meeting passed 0.65

300543.SZ Langke Intelligent Board of Directors Plan 0.63 1.0000

000550.SZ Jiangling Motors Board of Directors Plan 0.61

600312.SH Pinggao Electric Board of Directors Plan 0.60

603600.SH Yongyi shares board of directors plan 0.60 1.5000

300568.SZ Star Source Material Shareholders' Meeting passed 0.60 0.6000

000488.SZ Chenming Paper Board of Directors Plan 0.60

603198.SH welcomes the tribute wine board plan 0.60

002372.SZ Weixing New Materials Board of Directors Plan 0.60 0.3000

600826.SH Lansheng shares board of directors plan 0.60

002001.SZ Xinhecheng Board of Directors Plan 0.60

002793.SZ Dongyin shares board of directors plan 0.60 1.0000

600729.SH Chongqing Department Store Board of Directors Plan 0.56

601318.SH China Ping An Board of Directors Plan 0.55

603766.SH Longxin General Board of Directors Plan 0.50 0.5000 1.0000

300037.SZ New Zhoubang Board of Directors Plan 0.50 1.0000

600664.SH Harbin Pharmaceutical Shareholders' Meeting passed 0.50

600585.SH Conch Cement Board Plan 0.50

002795.SZ Yonghe Zhikong Board of Directors Plan 0.50 1.0000

001979.SZ Merchants Shekou Board of Directors Plan 0.50

300501.SZ Haishun New Materials Board of Directors Plan 0.50 0.2600

600829.SH People's Tongtai Shareholders' Meeting passed 0.50

002281.SZ Guangxun Technology Board of Directors Plan 0.50 2.0000

002206.SZ Hailide Board of Directors Plan 0.50 1.5000

600742.SH FAW Fuwei Board of Directors Plan 0.50

000603.SZ Shengda Mining Shareholders' Meeting passed 0.50

Source: Wind Information

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