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Zheng cotton 1205 contract opened lower today. It opened lower at 20370, the highest at 20,370, and the lowest at 20,225 at 20,275, down 75 points (-0.37%) from the previous trading day. The cotton index lightened 10022 lots of positions on the day, with a turnover of more than 30,000 lots.
In the spot market, on November 7, China's cotton price index (328) was 19,286 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. On November 4, the imported cotton price index (FCIndex S) was 118.04 cents/lb, down by 0.83 cents; the 1% customs duty was 19,127 yuan/ton, down by 133 yuan; the discounted tax was 19,584 yuan/ton, down by 132 yuan.
The sales volume has gradually increased. As of November 4, the cumulative turnover was 250,880 tons; of which, 154,820 tons were traded this week, accounting for more than half of the total volume. At the same time, a large-scale textile company in China reduced the purchase price of Grade 3 cotton to 19,300 yuan/ton, which was lower than the state reserve price of 19,800 yuan/ton. Therefore, in the poor condition of the textile industry, cotton processing companies look at the future cotton prices, and are more willing to hand over the cotton to the State Reserve. The new year cotton production is expected to be 7.29 million tons, an increase of 9.84% over the previous year. Consumption is estimated to be 9,906,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 108,900 tons or 1.09%; ending stocks are expected to be 2,905,100 tons, an increase of 424,600 tons or 16.81% over the previous year. The future consumption may also be further lowered, and the overall supply and demand will show more lax changes than last year. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the easing of domestic cotton supply and demand mitigation, the increase in the amount of international cotton resources, through the effective use of international market resources, can maintain the basic balance of domestic cotton supply and demand. Judging from the policy level, the introduction of temporary purchasing and storage policies has provided strong support for domestic cotton prices. In the new year, domestic cotton prices will be mainly stable, and there will be no ups and downs.
From the trend of the disk, today's Zhenghua 1205 opened lower, the intraday price volatility fell, and positions continue to shrink. At present, cotton does not have upward momentum, and it will continue to dominate at the bottom. At present, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
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