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In a recent analysis, Yu Yongding, president of the China World Economics Association, highlighted that China’s foreign trade is operating under a “losing and selling†model. He pointed out that as trade conditions worsen, the more China engages in imports and exports, the more its economic structure is being undermined. This observation comes amid growing concerns over the deteriorating terms of trade, which have been a long-standing issue for the Chinese economy.
According to reports from *The Financial Weekly*, the terms of trade—a key indicator reflecting a country's purchasing power in international trade—have shown a marked decline. In the first quarter of this year, the terms of trade returned to levels seen before 2008, with a reading of 81 in February—the lowest since 1998. The terms of trade represent the ratio between export and import price indices, yet it has not received enough attention compared to the focus on total trade volumes and trade surpluses.
Since 1998, China’s terms of trade have consistently declined, reaching a historical low in early 2008. However, during the second half of 2008 and into 2009, the global financial crisis led to an improvement. But by the first quarter of this year, the terms of trade had fallen again, signaling a worrying trend.
Song Guoqing, a professor at Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research, calculated that from January to March this year, the drop in export prices resulted in a loss of over $10.4 billion for the export sector, while higher import prices cost the country an additional $40.4 billion. Altogether, this amounted to a $50.8 billion loss, equivalent to 4.9% of national income. This means that instead of a real growth rate of 11.9%, the actual growth was only around 7%.
Song noted that this loss essentially represents China’s “contribution†to other countries, particularly oil and mineral exporters. The situation reflects deeper structural issues within China’s trade and industrial framework.
China’s trade structure plays a significant role in these trends. It imports large quantities of raw materials and primary products while exporting finished goods. As a result, fluctuations in the prices of these two categories heavily influence the terms of trade. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import price index rose by 31% year-on-year in the first quarter, largely driven by rising global commodity prices.
For instance, copper prices on the London Stock Exchange surged by 61.59%, 106.6%, and 98.68% in the first three months of the year. Crude oil prices also increased by 89% year-on-year, hitting an 18-month high of $86.84 per barrel on April 6. Meanwhile, the export price index fell by nearly 2% year-on-year, reaching its lowest level since the first quarter of 2000.
Despite these price increases, the volume of imports and exports did not see a proportional change. China’s total imports grew by 64.6% year-on-year, and exports rose by 28.7%. This means that China is buying more at higher prices and selling at lower ones—a clear example of “losing and selling.â€
This pattern is deeply tied to China’s industrial structure. Many low-value-added export industries are plagued by overcapacity and fierce competition, leaving them with little pricing power. For example, the container industry saw a 123.8% increase in exports but only a 0.4% rise in export value, with minimal profits.
At the same time, China’s secondary industry accounts for 46.8% of GDP, and its heavy reliance on imported resources like energy and minerals has fueled global commodity price hikes. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s tertiary industry accounted for just 42.6% of GDP in 2009, far below the world average and significantly behind developed economies.
Moreover, many importing firms face low profit margins and struggle to pass on rising input costs to consumers. In the steel industry, for example, production capacity remains outdated, and profit margins have dropped from 4-5% in 2008 to around 3%. In the first quarter of this year, 10 out of 77 major steel companies reported losses.
Strong domestic demand, especially from local governments, continues to drive up commodity prices. Infrastructure investment increased by 36% in the first quarter, creating significant demand for raw materials.
Looking ahead, the deterioration in China’s terms of trade is expected to continue. With international commodity prices still rising, the pressure on China’s trade balance will likely intensify. On April 30, the NYMEX June crude oil futures price stood at $85.46 per barrel, just slightly below the 18-month peak.
Additionally, the three major iron ore miners have demanded a price increase of over 90%-100%. Negotiations between Chinese steel mills and these mining companies recently broke down, leaving steel companies to consider signing contracts independently. The iron ore price is now unstoppable.
Recognizing this challenge, the Chinese government has started to address the issue. At a State Council meeting on April 14, officials mentioned incorporating the management of commodity price inflation expectations into future macroeconomic policies.
Yu Yongding emphasized that the worsening terms of trade reflect a misalignment between economic growth and national welfare. He called for a shift in China’s growth model, starting with increasing exchange rate flexibility. A stronger yuan could lower import prices and raise export prices, directly improving the terms of trade. It could also help eliminate outdated production capacity, boosting efficiency and upgrading the industrial structure.
Raising interest rates could also curb excessive investment demand. Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities, warned that Hong Kong is attracting a lot of speculative capital waiting for currency appreciation. If interest rates change, this could create a "double arbitrage" opportunity, especially given the zero-interest policies of the U.S. and Japan, which may attract even more hot money.
Balancing economic stability with the risk of inflows of speculative capital presents a difficult challenge for policymakers. How to manage both without causing harm remains a critical decision for China’s leadership.