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In recent discussions, Yu Yongding, president of the China World Economics Association, highlighted a concerning trend in China’s foreign trade: it is increasingly characterized by “losing and selling.†He pointed out that as trade conditions worsen, the more China engages in imports and exports, the more its economic structure deteriorates. This issue has been gaining attention, especially with the worsening terms of trade.
According to reports from *Financial Weekly*, China's terms of trade—defined as the ratio between export and import price indices—have seen a marked decline. After a brief improvement in 2009, they returned to a deteriorating trend, reaching a low of 81 in February, the lowest since 1998. This indicator reflects a country’s purchasing power and overall welfare in international trade, yet it has long been overlooked in favor of focusing on trade volumes and surpluses.
Since 1998, China’s terms of trade have steadily declined, hitting a historic low in the first three quarters of 2008. However, due to the global financial crisis, there was a temporary improvement in 2008-2009. Now, the situation has reversed again, with the first quarter of this year marking another significant drop.
Song Guoqing, a professor at Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research, calculated that from January to March this year, the drop in export prices led to a loss of over $10.4 billion in revenue, while rising import prices added an extra $40.4 billion in costs. This resulted in a total loss of $50.8 billion, equivalent to 4.9% of national income. This means that China’s real GDP growth in the first quarter was likely around 7%, not the reported 11.9%.
Song also noted that this loss essentially represents a “contribution†to other countries, particularly oil and mineral exporters. The imbalance in trade terms is deeply tied to China’s import and export structure, which relies heavily on importing raw materials and exporting finished goods. This dynamic makes the country vulnerable to global price fluctuations.
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China’s import price index rose by 31% year-on-year in the first quarter, largely driven by rising commodity prices. Copper prices surged by 61.59%, 106.6%, and 98.68% in the first three months of the year, while crude oil prices jumped 89% annually, reaching an 18-month high of $86.84 per barrel.
Meanwhile, China’s export price index fell by nearly 2% year-on-year, hitting a low not seen since 2000. Despite these price increases, the volume of imports and exports still rose significantly—imports up 64.6%, and exports up 28.7%. This paradoxical situation—buying high and selling low—reflects deep structural issues within China’s economy.
Low-value-added industries, such as container manufacturing, exemplify this problem. While container exports increased by 123.8% year-on-year, their value only rose by 0.4%, leaving minimal profit margins. Similarly, China’s heavy reliance on imported resources like oil and minerals has pushed up global commodity prices, further worsening trade conditions.
The underdeveloped tertiary sector also plays a role. In 2009, the service sector accounted for just 42.6% of GDP, far below the global average and significantly lower than developed nations. This lack of diversification leaves the economy vulnerable to external shocks.
Additionally, many import-oriented industries operate with low profit margins, unable to pass on rising input costs to consumers. For instance, the steel industry saw its profit margin drop to around 3% in the first quarter, with 10 out of 77 major companies reporting losses.
Strong domestic investment demand, particularly in infrastructure, is also fueling commodity price increases. Local governments continue to invest heavily, creating rigid demand that drives up prices.
Looking ahead, the deterioration in terms of trade is expected to persist, with rising global commodity prices likely to worsen the situation. Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $85.46 per barrel, just below the April 6 high of $86.84. Meanwhile, iron ore prices are set to rise sharply, with major mining companies demanding over 90%-100% increases.
The Chinese government has taken note of these challenges. At a State Council meeting on April 14, officials emphasized the need to incorporate managing inflation expectations into macroeconomic policy. Experts like Yu Yongding suggest that adjusting the exchange rate could help improve trade terms by making imports cheaper and exports more competitive.
Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities, warned that hot money is accumulating in Hong Kong, waiting for the yuan to appreciate. If interest rates rise, it could trigger a double arbitrage effect, drawing even more speculative capital into the market.
Balancing economic stability with the risk of speculative inflows remains a complex challenge. As China faces both internal and external pressures, the path forward requires careful policy decisions to ensure sustainable growth.